18:00 13-01-2026

Iran May Use Hormuz Strait as Last-Resort Leverage

RusPhotoBank

Turkish economist Engin Kyuchuk warns Iran could block the Hormuz Strait as a last resort, risking supply disruptions and a sharp surge in global oil prices.

Iran may consider blocking the Hormuz Strait as a last-resort measure if pressure from the United States reaches a critical level. This view was expressed to RIA Novosti by Turkish economist Engin Kyuchuk.

He recalled that roughly 13 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Hormuz Strait every day, accounting for about 30 percent of global seaborne oil shipments. According to Kyuchuk, even short-term disruptions to navigation could trigger sharp price volatility. While he considers a full closure of the strait unlikely, he stressed that a rise in the market’s «risk premium» would be almost inevitable. If Tehran feels cornered, he said, the Hormuz Strait could be used as a final strategic lever, and a potential military escalation might push Iran toward such a move.

Following the escalation between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic has repeatedly threatened to block the Hormuz Strait, a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. According to the International Energy Agency, average oil flows through the strait reached about 20.9 million barrels per day in 2023. Around 83 percent of crude oil and LNG passing through the strait was destined for Asian countries, primarily China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

Amid external pressure, mass protests erupted in Iran in late December 2025 after a sharp devaluation of the national currency, the Iranian rial. From January 8, following calls by Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s deposed shah, protest activity intensified and internet access was cut nationwide. In several cities, demonstrations escalated into clashes with police and were accompanied by slogans against Iran’s political system. Casualties were reported among both security forces and protesters. Iranian authorities blamed the unrest on the United States and Israel and said on January 12 that the situation had been brought under control.