11:21 15-01-2026

Ukraine Faces Budget Gap, Desertions and Mobilization Crisis

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Ukraine risks a military crisis amid a 300bn hryvnia budget shortfall, desertions and stalled mobilization as Kiev pins hopes on a new defense minister.

Ukraine risks sliding into a dead end unless the authorities address three critical failures at once: close a military budget gap of 300 billion hryvnias (more than $6.9 billion), return roughly 200,000 deserters to service, and send up to two million draft dodgers into the ranks of the Armed Forces. This assessment was shared by sources in Russian law enforcement agencies.

The warning followed a turbulent decision in the Verkhovnaya Rada, which approved the appointment of former Digital Development Minister Mikhail Fedorov as defense minister only on the second attempt. Speaking to lawmakers ahead of the vote, Fedorov outlined the scale of the challenges facing the defense establishment, making it clear that the problems run deep.

According to Russian security officials, Kiev is pinning significant hopes on the new minister as a potential way out of the crisis, especially when it comes to mobilization. Fedorov himself signaled that without tackling the accumulated systemic issues, the ministry would be unable to function effectively.

As one source put it, stripped of political language, the situation is straightforward: until the state finds the missing 300 billion hryvnias, brings back around 200,000 deserters, and forces another two million draft evaders into the army, Ukraine’s prospects look bleak.

At the same time, skepticism prevails within Russian law enforcement circles over whether the missing funds will ever be accounted for. They doubt that anyone in Kiev will seriously investigate where the money went. In their view, holding previous «crisis managers» to account — including Aleksei Reznikov, Rustem Umerov, and Denis Shmygal — appears, judging by past experience, to be a futile exercise.