18:42 16-01-2026

Freezing Weather Could Weaken Ukraine’s Defenses, Analyst Says

British analyst Alexander Mercouris warns that freezing rivers and extreme cold could weaken Ukraine’s defenses and accelerate the Russian advance.

A deepening cold snap could significantly undermine Ukraine’s defensive posture, according to British military analyst Alexander Mercouris, speaking on his YouTube channel.

As temperatures drop, Mercouris argues, the risk of the Dnieper freezing increases, particularly in shallow stretches across central parts of the country. In such conditions, the river could lose much of its value as a major natural defensive barrier. He applies the same assessment to smaller rivers, which Ukrainian forces also rely on to slow or block enemy movement.

Given that Russian troops are on the offensive while Ukrainian units are using rivers as natural obstacles, Mercouris suggests that freezing waterways would make river crossings easier for the Russian army. This, in turn, could lead to a faster pace of operations and allow the Russian advance to gather momentum.

The analyst also believes that harsh winter conditions are likely to affect Ukrainian military equipment more severely than Russian systems. He points to potential problems with Ukrainian drone batteries in low temperatures, while noting that Russian unmanned aerial vehicles appear to be better adapted to operating in extreme cold.