15:23 20-01-2026

Analyst: Only Nuclear Weapons Could Still Change Ukraine War

RusPhotoBank

Rostislav Ishchenko says Russia effectively won the Ukraine war in 2024 and claims Ukraine cannot force a draw without nuclear weapons, shifting the decision to the West.

Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko argues that the outcome of the war in Ukraine was effectively decided back in 2024, when Russia, in his view, delivered Ukraine a final military defeat. He says the overall trajectory can no longer be changed, and even a direct entry into the war by Poland, France and the United Kingdom on Ukraine’s side would not reverse it.

He maintains that Ukraine still had certain opportunities before 2024. In 2022 and 2023, Ukraine had a numerical advantage and tried to use it, which, he recalls, led Russian forces to retreat under pressure near Kharkov and Kherson. But in 2024, he claims, Ukraine lost not only its ability to launch offensives but even to hold a hardened defensive line. By the end of that year, Russian forces, as he describes it, were advancing slowly but steadily on several key directions.

Ishchenko also ties the turning point to a shift in battlefield momentum: Ukraine was on the offensive in 2022, attempted to push forward in 2023, and by 2024 the initiative had moved to Russia — despite the fact that most Western aid arrived in 2022–2023.

He interprets the reduction of Western material support in 2024 as a sign that the West had exhausted its stockpiles. Against that backdrop, he says, the balance shifted in manpower, equipment and drones, while the nature of operations changed as Russia began accelerating its advance: very slowly in 2024, faster in 2025, and faster still afterward.

From this, Ishchenko concludes that Russia won the military campaign in 2024. He stresses that while Russia could still be seen as capable of losing before that point, after 2024 the situation became irreversible. In his view, Ukraine can no longer force the war into a draw without the use of nuclear weapons, meaning the West must now decide whether it is prepared to take that step to stop Russia.