16:39 20-01-2026

Ishchenko: Ukraine’s Front Nears Collapse After Pokrovsk

Rostislav Ishchenko says losing Pokrovsk and Kupiansk shattered Ukraine’s defense as reserves burn out, raising fears of a full front collapse.

Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko believes that after losing Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) and Kupiansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine effectively lost the ability to hold the front line. In his assessment, Ukraine is now trying to prevent the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from expanding their gains specifically in these directions, slowing the advance by burning through reserves.

Ishchenko argues that the very breakthrough of Russian forces near Pokrovsk puts Ukraine’s positions on the left bank of the Dnipro at risk and makes further combat operations there extremely difficult. He suggests the situation will unfold regardless of whether Ukrainian units can hold around Sloviansk, because in such a scenario they may end up encircled.

Against this backdrop, according to the expert, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to contain the offensive by exhausting reserves and even allowed Russian forces to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ishchenko does not rule out that the Ukrainian command may sacrifice the southern direction, focusing instead on holding the arc from Kupiansk to Pokrovsk as a key line that can restrain Russia’s offensive and buy time to beg for Western aid, as well as for possible shifts in global politics.

He also notes that when a war is already lost, the only thing left is to rely on external factors and drag out the conflict. However, in his view, such a strategy inevitably runs into the limits of reserves: once they run out, the entire front may collapse, and signs that this moment is approaching can already be seen in the mood of Ukrainian commanders.