00:00 21-03-2026

US Khark Island Plan Could Trigger Major Escalation

See page for author, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Analysis warns a US operation on Iran’s Khark Island could fail militarily, escalate tensions, and impact global oil markets amid rising conflict risks.

An attempt by the United States to seize control of Iran’s Khark Island could end in disaster for Washington, according to an analysis by Responsible Statecraft.

The publication argues that, from a tactical standpoint, such an operation would be extremely hazardous. Units tasked with landing on the island would likely find themselves in a near-hopeless position — effectively facing a mission that could lead either to heavy losses or capture.

The strategic logic behind the move is also questioned. Even if the operation succeeded in disrupting Iran’s oil exports, the authors suggest it would be unlikely to produce the intended pressure on Tehran. Inside Iran, the current standoff with the United States and Israel is viewed as an existential threat, which reduces the chances of coercion having the desired effect.

The report further warns that an assault on Khark Island could trigger a sharp escalation of the conflict.

On March 16, Axios, citing sources, reported that US President Donald Trump was considering a scenario involving an American landing on the island. The same day, Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicated that any attack on Khark — the country’s key oil terminal — could have a significant impact on global oil prices.