01:32 23-03-2026

US–Iran Conflict Risks Becoming Prolonged War — FT

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FT reports growing risk of a prolonged US–Iran conflict, with unclear goals, possible troop deployment, and warnings of a scenario similar to Iraq and Afghanistan.

The standoff between the United States and Iran risks sliding into a prolonged and draining conflict reminiscent of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, according to a Financial Times report that draws on assessments from analysts and former officials.

The publication notes that, despite statements from U. S. President Donald Trump claiming progress in operations against Tehran, the outlook has grown increasingly uncertain after several weeks of fighting. What initially appeared to be a defined campaign now shows signs of open-ended escalation.

Former U. S. National Security Advisor John Bolton suggested that Trump had once leaned toward regime change in Iran but did not follow through. As a result, he indicated, the outcome could be a weakened government that ultimately resumes its previous course.

At the same time, the U.S. administration is reportedly weighing the deployment of ground forces to the Middle East, while the Pentagon has already requested an additional $200 billion in funding from Congress. The prospect of deeper involvement is causing unease among Republican lawmakers, who are facing voter concerns over rising fuel prices during the election campaign.

The situation carries an added layer of contradiction given Trump’s earlier criticism of so-called «endless wars," particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan-conflicts he had previously described as major strategic mistakes.

Experts point out that Washington’s objectives regarding Iran remain unclear, complicating efforts to achieve a decisive outcome and increasing the likelihood of a drawn-out confrontation. None of the apparent exit strategies, they argue, offers a guaranteed victory for the United States.

Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat and former CIA analyst, has indicated that halting the operation could preserve lives and resources, though it would likely strengthen the Iranian government.

Former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan Ryan Crocker, in turn, suggested that Iran’s position improves simply by enduring the pressure, as it has demonstrated its ability to withstand the campaign.

Some diplomats believe the risk of the conflict turning into a full-scale quagmire would become acute only if U.S. ground forces were deployed inside Iran, a step Washington may ultimately avoid. Crocker warned that such a move would result in severe complications.

Ilan Goldenberg, who previously advised on Middle East policy under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, argued that the current trajectory already reflects the early signs of a scenario that could evolve into a protracted war.

Notably, Trump himself had described U.S. involvement in the Middle East as a «quagmire» as far back as 2019, criticizing such interventions as one of the country’s major foreign policy missteps.