02:42 07-04-2026

Why a US War With Iran Would Be Hard to Win

© North Atlantic Treaty Organization / www.nato.int

US strategists warn a war with Iran would be complex and costly. Even with AI and precision weapons, geography and dispersed targets limit effectiveness.

American military planners have long recognized how difficult a potential conflict with Iran would be-and how uncertain the prospects of victory remain. Analysts Mark Gustafson and Justin Cosslin outlined this assessment in an article for The New York Times.

They argue that war planning in Washington has consistently been shaped by a hard reality: Iran’s geography and military structure make any campaign exceptionally challenging. The country’s vast, mountainous terrain and the concealment of key infrastructure in caves and fortified bunkers complicate any attempt at decisive action.

According to the authors, even the most ambitious scenarios-such as halting Tehran’s nuclear program or pursuing regime change-inevitably point to the need for ground operations. That, in turn, would likely result in significant casualties among US forces.

The calculus began to shift with the growing integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning into military strategy. US planners increasingly viewed advanced technologies as a way to conduct prolonged conflicts remotely, reducing risks to personnel.

The combination of AI, precision-guided weapons, and large-scale surveillance systems has expanded the military’s ability to identify and strike targets from a distance. In theory, this approach allows for faster operations with fewer unintended losses.

Yet, as the authors note, these expectations face clear limits in practice. The concept of a largely «remote war», long discussed in strategic circles, has proven far less effective when applied to a potential confrontation with Iran.

Even with rapid data processing and improved targeting accuracy, certain challenges remain beyond technological control. Among them is the sheer number and dispersion of Iranian drone systems, which cannot be neutralized solely through advanced technology.