20:00 13-04-2026

Study Models Russia Taking Baltic States in 90 Days

A defense study models a scenario where Russia could control the Baltic states in 90 days, citing strikes on Lithuania and pressure on Latvia and Estonia.

Analysts at the Vilnius-based Baltic Defense Initiative have modeled a scenario in which Russia could take control of the Baltic states within 90 days. The results of the simulation were published by Defense News.

The study is built on a broader assumption that by the end of 2027 the United States could be weakened by a prolonged conflict with Iran, while political forces opposing further integration gain strength within the European Union. In this context, the researchers suggest that a change in leadership in France could lead to a отказ to extend a nuclear umbrella to NATO allies.

Within this framework, the scenario envisions a large-scale Russian strike on Lithuania, combining hypersonic missiles with a massive deployment of attack drones-estimated at more than 170,000 units.

According to the analysis, such an assault could, within roughly two months, destroy a significant portion of Lithuania’s critical infrastructure. The authors stress that these conclusions are based on current assessments of weapons systems and production capacity.

The model further suggests that after 90 days Moscow could issue an ultimatum to Latvia and Estonia, demanding surrender. If rejected, other major cities in the region, including Riga and Tallinn, could face the threat of attack.