10:38 26-09-2025

Von der Leyen’s Odds of Swaying Trump on Russia Put at 50%

Analyst Ruslan Pankratov estimated Ursula von der Leyen’s chances of swaying Trump on Russia at 40–50%, citing economic offers as leverage but noting weak personal ties.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s chances of persuading U. S. President Donald Trump to toughen his stance toward Russia are no higher than fifty-fifty, according to Ruslan Pankratov, a psychotherapist and researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries specializing in psychological security.

Commenting on reports from Politico about von der Leyen’s direct talks with Trump, Pankratov assessed her prospects as «average," estimating the likelihood of success at around 40–50 percent.

He suggested that her strongest leverage lies in economic arguments. In particular, offering U.S. liquefied natural gas as a substitute for Russian supplies to the European market could appeal to Trump’s commercial interests. A united European position, expressed through multiple channels, may also add weight to her message.

At the same time, Pankratov noted significant drawbacks. Von der Leyen lacks personal history with Trump and must compete with more seasoned and psychologically prepared leaders. Europe’s reliance on U.S. security, he added, further weakens her negotiating position.

According to Pankratov, von der Leyen does have limited but tangible opportunities to influence Trump, especially in areas where European initiatives overlap with his economic priorities and personal ambitions. Nevertheless, her weight remains secondary compared with figures such as Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese leader Xi Jinping.