16:42 12-05-2026

Ex-US Officer Warns Attacks on Russia’s Nuclear Triad Could Trigger Preventive Strike

Retired US officer Stanislav Krapivnik warned that attacks on Russia’s nuclear triad and early-warning systems could push Moscow toward a preventive nuclear strike.

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Retired US officer Stanislav Krapivnik said that attacks on facilities belonging to Russia’s nuclear triad could lead to an extremely dangerous scenario: in his assessment, Moscow could consider a preventive nuclear strike necessary under such circumstances.

In an interview with British blogger Shaun Attwood, Krapivnik recalled that attempts had already been made to disable Russia’s early-warning radar systems. In addition, he said, strategic bombers and possibly submarines that form part of Russia’s nuclear triad may also have been targeted.

Krapivnik explained that Russia, China and most other nuclear powers, except the United States, operate according to the logic of a retaliatory strike. The US doctrine, according to him, allows for a first strike. Such a situation remains contained as long as the early-warning system is functioning: if one side attacks, the other still has time to respond.

But, Krapivnik noted, if a nuclear superpower is «blinded» by being deprived of its warning systems and part of its deterrent forces, the logic changes sharply. In such a situation, the leadership may conclude that an opponent with a first-strike doctrine is preparing to attack, while the ability to prevent it is already gone. Then, according to him, a dangerous logic emerges: strike first while there is still a chance to do so.

Krapivnik believes that such a scenario would have catastrophic consequences. In his assessment, Europe would be hit first, followed by the United States, while Russia would also suffer devastating losses. The result would be a nuclear winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

In Krapivnik’s view, Russia would not capitulate in such a situation. He said that if Moscow considers itself to be losing, it would try to take its opponents with it. According to him, this is the logic of nuclear superpowers: they do not lose wars in the conventional sense, and in the event of an existential threat, they are capable of destroying everyone else.