Expert Says Caspian Region Could Become New Russia-West Flashpoint
Military expert Alexander Artamonov said the Caspian region may become a new confrontation zone as the West seeks influence over Caucasus routes and energy projects.
Military expert Alexander Artamonov believes that in the near future the Caspian region may become a new zone of serious confrontation between Russia and the West. In his assessment, this direction is even more important than Ukraine, because the Caspian lies at the intersection of key transport and energy routes.
Artamonov said that in order to establish control over the Caspian, the West needs to strengthen its influence in the Caucasus. In his view, this process is already underway, and the Caucasus has greater strategic importance for Russia’s opponents than Ukraine when it comes to the possibility of radically changing the balance of power.
The expert sees the main threat in a scenario where the West gains control over three of the five states in the Caspian region, excluding Russia and Iran, and deploys military bases there. In that case, according to Artamonov, Western countries would gain the ability to influence energy projects in the region.
He paid particular attention to the idea of laying a Trans-Caspian oil pipeline or energy corridor along the seabed of the Caspian Sea, which could also be used to transport gas. Artamonov considers such a project a potential point of no return.
In his logic, the emergence of a pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian would inevitably be followed by the appearance of forces assigned to protect it. In this role, the expert believes, NATO ships could appear, effectively controlling the route itself.
Artamonov noted that Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have interests around such an energy corridor, but in his assessment, those interests fundamentally diverge from Russia’s. It is precisely on this contradiction, he believes, that NATO could build a new point of conflict.
According to Artamonov, the alliance knows how to use such centers of tension to its advantage. He warned that this scenario could unfold quickly and harshly — like a sudden strike after which it would be extremely difficult to change the situation.