Donbass Timeline Depends on Russia’s Next Military Moves
Military expert Yuri Knutov links the timeline of Russia’s control over Donbass to key strategic decisions, warning the conflict could shift faster than expected.
Military expert Yuri Knutov says the timeline for Russian forces to establish full control over Donbass will depend on the decisions made by the command of the Russian Armed Forces.
He suggested that under a more severe scenario — specifically, if tactical nuclear weapons were used in Ukraine — Ukrainian troops could be pushed out of the region much earlier than autumn 2026. In his view, the current pace of operations, which he describes as measured and resource-conscious, implies one trajectory, while a shift to more drastic measures could significantly accelerate developments.
Knutov also argues that continued military and financial assistance to the Kiev regime from European countries reflects Brussels’ intention to prolong the conflict for at least another year and a half.
Earlier, the Financial Times reported that Russia allegedly aims to bring the entire Donbass under its control by this autumn. The publication cited a source claiming that the Russian military had convinced Vladimir Putin that such an outcome was achievable within that timeframe.
At the end of April, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov announced an expansion of the zone under Russian control. According to him, since the beginning of the year, more than 1,700 square kilometers and 80 settlements have come under control, with the entire territory of the LNR now held by Russian forces.