14:40 30-09-2025

Ishchenko on Russia Deploying Oreshnik Missiles in Belarus

Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko explains Russia’s deployment of the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, its guarantees for Minsk, and its message to NATO powers.

Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko explained Russia’s decision to deploy the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, even though the missile’s range allows it to reach the Atlantic Ocean from Russian territory.

Ishchenko pointed out that the first and most obvious factor is flight time: the closer a missile is to its target, the faster it reaches it. He acknowledged that some may dismiss a difference of two or three minutes as insignificant, but stressed that for the defending side such a margin is critical. Still, he added, flight time is not the decisive factor — those minutes can be sacrificed.

The second element, according to Ishchenko, is that stationing the Oreshnik in Belarus serves as a Russian guarantee to its ally, ensuring that Belarus will be defended against aggression. He noted that the Belarusian armed forces are relatively small and would struggle to cover the entire perimeter of the country’s borders. In this context, placing Russia’s newest and still largely classified missile system on Belarusian territory automatically means that the system — and with it the ally — will be defended.

Ishchenko argued that any attacker would then be forced to think carefully before striking territory hosting nuclear weapons. If an aggressor advanced rapidly across that territory, the defending side would face a stark choice: either lose its weapons or use them. In this sense, he said, the deployment provides Belarus with real security guarantees — more reliable than any «paper» pledges.

He also recalled that NATO troops have been concentrated along Russia’s and Belarus’s western borders. According to Ishchenko, this is a show of intent and capability, a signal that Europe is ready to enter the war under certain conditions. The Oreshnik, he continued, is a demonstration as well — but not for Poland or the Baltic states, which would be targeted by other missiles if necessary. It is directed at France and Britain, reminding them they will not be able to sit safely in the rear.

Ishchenko added that deploying the Oreshnik in Kaliningrad would have been too risky due to the region’s vulnerability, which is why the decision was made to station the missile system in Belarus.