Knutov Explains Drone Strike on Moscow Oil Refinery
Yury Knutov explains how Ukrainian drones could reach the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya, citing air defence gaps, satellite data and rainy weather.
Military expert and air defence historian Yury Knutov has commented on the continuing Ukrainian drone attacks on targets deep inside Russia, including in the Moscow region.
Earlier, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said that a facility at the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya had been damaged during a drone attack on the night of June 16. According to the mayor, there were no casualties. The Emergencies Ministry later clarified that the fire at the refinery had been quickly contained and extinguished.
Knutov said Ukrainian forces regularly try to identify weak points in Russia’s air defence system, including with the help of data from American satellites. He pointed to recent media reports claiming that Ukrainian drone operators receive satellite images from Vantor as quickly as 15 minutes after they are taken.
According to the expert, such data allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to look for routes that could potentially bypass air defence systems and surface-to-air missile complexes, as well as to carry out diversionary maneuvers.
He said Ukrainian forces are constantly searching for new technical methods for attacks. In particular, Ukraine has tested the launch of drones, including Leleka-100 and Hornet UAVs, from meteorological balloons at high altitude. Under this method, a drone is suspended on a cable, then released, launched during its descent and directed at a target after reaching a position directly above it.
Knutov said there are several possible explanations for how a Ukrainian drone managed to reach Kapotnya. One option, he noted, is the use of so-called «star raids," in which strikes are launched simultaneously from several directions.
He explained that drones could attack from the east as well, first finding areas not covered by air defence, flying through them, moving eastward, turning around and then heading toward the capital. According to him, this tactic is especially difficult for air defence systems to counter.
Weather conditions may have added another layer of difficulty, the expert continued. Drones fly at extremely low altitudes, and during rain they are not always detectable even by radar systems.
Knutov suggested that this may have been part of the enemy’s calculation in the strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery. He also did not rule out that more advanced drone models could have been used in the raid, equipped with cameras capable of maintaining visibility in rainy weather.