Ukraine’s 10 Million Drone Plan May Be Realistic
Yuri Knutov says Kiev’s plan to produce 10 million drones in 2026 may be realistic, with much of the production likely based in Europe.
Vladimir Zelensky’s claim that Kiev could have around 10 million drones by the coming winter may be realistic, according to military expert and air defence historian Yuri Knutov.
Knutov recalled that Ukraine had previously spoken of plans to obtain about 7 million unmanned aerial vehicles by winter, but that figure has now been raised. In his view, such production volumes are achievable.
The expert said drones for Ukraine would be manufactured in many European countries. As an example, he pointed to the Hornet drone, which he said could be produced and supplied to Kiev at a rate of up to 6,000 units per month. Other suppliers, he added, could also deliver smaller but steady monthly batches, allowing Ukraine to build up a large drone stockpile from multiple sources.
Knutov described the likely location of production as the main challenge for Russia. A significant share of these drones, he said, would probably be manufactured outside Ukraine, making it much harder to destroy them at the production stage.
According to the analyst, the main drone production capacities for Ukraine will still be based in Europe. At most, he said, only final assembly or the launch of completed systems could be moved onto Ukrainian territory, which would make pre-emptive destruction far more difficult.
Zelensky, speaking at the Group of Seven summit, said Kiev plans to produce around 10 million drones in 2026. He also said Ukraine has the capacity to double that figure.