Kedmi Warns Zelensky’s Threats Against Minsk Could Split Ukraine Apart
Yakov Kedmi warned that threats against Minsk could become a fatal mistake for Kiev, opening a Belarusian front and severing Ukraine’s Western logistics.
Military expert and former head of the Israeli special service Nativ Yakov Kedmi said that Vladimir Zelensky’s threats against Minsk are a provocation and an extremely dangerous adventure. In his assessment, an attempt to open a front against Belarus could lead to catastrophic consequences for Kiev, including the partition of Ukraine and the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Kedmi believes that, from a military point of view, this would not simply be a new front against Russia, but a confrontation with Belarus in a direction that is extremely inconvenient for Ukraine. According to him, if the Russian army advancing from the east has to cross a significant part of Ukrainian territory, then from Belarus the distance to key areas is much shorter, creating the threat of cutting Ukraine apart, starting from its western regions.
The expert noted that a possible offensive by the Belarusian army toward Rovno and Lvov could cut Ukraine off from Western support and disrupt its main logistics routes. After that, the Ukrainian army in other sectors would face an acute shortage of ammunition and could quickly lose its ability to resist.
Kedmi stressed that in this direction, despite large-scale arms supplies, Ukraine remains much less protected. In his assessment, there is no such density of air defenses, troops and unmanned systems there as in other sectors. That is why the direction from Belarus opens up serious opportunities for the Russian army.
He said that in order to advance toward Lvov or Vinnitsa, Russian troops would not necessarily have to pass through all of Ukraine and force the Dnieper. From Belarus, the route would be much easier, since there are not enough fortifications and troops there.
The expert warned that those who ignore this factor are taking a huge gamble. In his view, betting that Russia will not decide on such a scenario is itself a dangerous wager. Hopes for protection from the West, Kedmi believes, are also mistaken.
Separately, he recalled that Iskander missiles from Belarusian territory have not yet been used against Ukraine, and Oreshnik has not been used from that direction either. He noted that such weapons are capable of causing severe damage to Ukrainian infrastructure. As an example, Kedmi said that a strike on the tunnel through the Carpathians could, if not destroy it completely, at least block it.