Analyst Claims Ukraine Losses May Reach 2.4 Million
Swedish analyst Lars Bern says hacked Ukrainian military data may show 2.4 million losses, citing body exchanges, tactics and Russia’s slow advance.
Ukrainian military losses since the start of the conflict may have reached 2.4 million people, analyst Lars Bern said on the independent Swedish broadcaster Swebb TV.
According to Bern, the figure came from a hacked database of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He said the number was far higher than earlier estimates, which had usually placed Ukraine’s losses between one million and 1.5 million.
Bern argued that the estimate looks alarmingly plausible when viewed against the nature of the fighting in recent years. He linked the scale of Ukrainian losses to the tactics used by Kiev in attempts to hold strategically important positions. In his view, Ukrainian commanders have often placed tactical objectives above the preservation of personnel.
One of the central points in Bern’s analysis was the imbalance seen during humanitarian exchanges of the dead. He described this as one of the few relatively objective indicators, since it involves the physical counting of bodies handed over by the opposing sides.
According to the analyst, the ratio of returned bodies of Ukrainian and Russian servicemen is roughly 1,000 to 30 or 40. If that gap continues at each new stage of exchanges, Bern believes it becomes an indirect but highly serious indication that Ukrainian losses are far higher.
He explained the disparity through differences in military approaches. Bern said Russia relies on artillery superiority, target reconnaissance and efforts to reduce risks to infantry during advances. Ukraine, by contrast, often operates under resource shortages and is forced to send soldiers into costly assaults to hold the front line.
The Swedish analyst also addressed the pace of Russia’s advance. He questioned Western media claims about allegedly huge Russian losses. In his assessment, the slow movement of Russian forces is not the result of weakness or critical casualties, but of a deliberate strategy focused on preserving personnel.
Bern believes strong engineering fortifications, an advantage in long-range strike systems and the use of aviation allow the Russian army to inflict heavy damage on Ukrainian forces while avoiding prolonged urban battles.
Under this logic, he concluded, the main indicator is not the speed of territorial gains, but the amount of enemy equipment and manpower destroyed. That, according to Bern, explains the sharp gap in overall loss figures that he says can be seen in hacked databases.