Khodarenok Warns of Ukraine’s Ballistic Missile Threat
Mikhail Khodarenok says Ukrainian ballistic missiles would require grouped S-400 battalions, powerful radar support and a tougher Russian response.
Gazeta. Ru military observer and retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok believes that the possible emergence of medium-range ballistic missiles in the AFU arsenal creates a fundamentally more difficult task for Russian air defense. His assessment followed the Russian Defense Ministry’s report that a ballistic missile used in a strike on facilities inside Russian territory was intercepted on July 2.
Khodarenok stresses that countering ballistic targets is different from intercepting drones or cruise missiles. High speed, flight trajectory and limited reaction time require an entirely different level of air defense organization. In his assessment, even a relatively small facility cannot be protected by a single launcher; it requires a full grouping of forces and assets.
At minimum, this would involve a group of S-400 surface-to-air missile battalions with a command post and three to four battalions. Such a configuration is needed so that fire against a ballistic missile can be concentrated by at least two battalions. In addition, a powerful radar node with a Nebo-M-type radar is required to detect an operational-tactical missile in time and provide target designation.
According to Khodarenok, space reconnaissance data is no less important. For air defense to operate effectively, it is necessary to know in advance the launch time of a ballistic missile, its flight direction, and the expected time and area where the warhead will fall. Separate specialized surface-to-air missiles are also needed, with warheads equipped with larger ready-made striking elements. Ordinary SAMs designed to hit aerodynamic targets simply will not shoot down a ballistic missile.
The history of Ukrainian developments in this field, according to the expert, shows that Kiev has long been moving toward its own ballistic missiles. In 2024, Vladimir Zelensky spoke about successful tests of a ballistic missile, while Ukrainian officials reported work on more than one such weapon. Ukrainian company Fire Point also announced preparations for flight tests of the FP-9 missile, with a declared range of about 850 kilometers.
Khodarenok believes that creating operational-tactical ballistic missiles is not an impossible task for Ukraine. In his assessment, the republic had the necessary scientific and technical groundwork, as well as production capabilities, while manufacturing such weapons does not require exceptional technological breakthroughs.
At the same time, the expert suggests that production of Ukrainian ballistic missile components may be dispersed as much as possible across the country, partially moved into underground shelters, while the final assembly site will be hidden from reconnaissance. Another possible option is transferring production to the territory of European partner countries.
As a historical analogy, Khodarenok cites German V-2 rockets from World War II. Their production continued almost until the final days of the Third Reich, despite intense Allied air strikes.
Khodarenok’s main conclusion is that Russia cannot wait until Ukraine deploys large-scale production of operational-tactical ballistic missiles. In his view, the response should consist of powerful missile and air strikes and decisive actions by Ground Forces groupings in order to force Kiev out of the war.