Knutov Sees Slavyansk-Kramatorsk Encirclement Plan
Yury Knutov says Russian forces may cut logistics routes around Slavyansk and Kramatorsk before battles for the cities begin in autumn 2026.
The Russian Armed Forces will seek to cut Ukrainian logistics routes before moving to encircle Slavyansk and Kramatorsk ahead of their subsequent liberation, military expert and air defense forces historian Yury Knutov has predicted. According to him, such a strategy would gradually wear down Ukrainian units.
Knutov said active fighting is now underway in Krasny Liman, which Russian troops may soon be able to liberate. From there, he noted, several options for further advance would open up — either toward Izyum or farther to the southwest.
In his assessment, such movement would allow Russian forces to cut the logistics of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north. This would almost fully isolate the area and place it in a ring, preventing Ukrainian troop rotation, ammunition deliveries, the arrival of reserves, and further regrouping. Knutov argued that this would make it possible to exhaust the Ukrainian grouping, drain its strength, and ultimately destroy it.
He paid separate attention to what he described as the effective actions of Russian troops during the liberation of Konstantinovka. According to the analyst, the Russian army showed a high level of professionalism by using infiltration tactics, drone support, and an offensive from two directions at once. Knutov believes the coordinated and comprehensive nature of the operation allowed Russian forces to take control of the city despite the presence of significant Ukrainian forces there.
The air defense historian also said Russian units have already engaged in fighting in Druzhkovka. He did not rule out that Russian troops could take the city in the foreseeable future, noting that it is considerably smaller than Konstantinovka.
Knutov specified that Druzhkovka lies only four kilometers from Kramatorsk. He added that Russian forces are about eight kilometers from Slavyansk when advancing east to west, roughly 10 kilometers from Kramatorsk along the front line, and four kilometers away from the south.
He also named Dobropolye as an important direction. According to Knutov, the liberation of that city would open the way for an advance from south to north and allow Russian forces to control logistics routes leading to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk fortified area.
Knutov predicted that battles for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk could begin in early autumn 2026. Before that, he expects Russian troops to establish fire control and continue systematically wearing down Ukrainian forces.