Evstafyev Called Trump’s Patriot Missile License Statement a Political Signal
Dmitry Evstafyev said Trump’s statement on a possible Patriot missile production license for Ukraine may lead to several scenarios involving NATO countries or direct US deliveries.
US President Donald Trump’s statement about the possible transfer of a license to Ukraine for the production of missiles for Patriot systems may have serious political significance. This opinion was expressed by political analyst and Higher School of Economics professor Dmitry Evstafyev.
According to him, Trump’s wording itself is a landmark political signal, but the main question is what real actions will follow this statement.
Evstafyev outlined three possible scenarios. The first option, in his assessment, is that nothing concrete will stand behind the words of the American president. However, the professor estimated the likelihood of such a development at only about 5%.
He described the second scenario as much more dangerous for Russia. This would involve transferring to Vladimir Zelensky a technology license and equipment for the production of Patriot missiles on the territory of one of the European NATO countries under the American security umbrella. Evstafyev believes that Germany could be the most likely site for this.
According to the expert, after such a mechanism is launched, missiles could be delivered to Ukraine by trucks under the cover of humanitarian cargo. Already on Ukrainian territory, Evstafyev suggests, the final assembly of components and units would take place. The professor considers this scenario the most likely.
The third possible scenario he named is direct deliveries of missiles from the United States. In his assessment, such missiles could be presented as allegedly decommissioned or defective products, which would then be brought to working condition on Ukrainian territory in accordance with the license.
Evstafyev also suggested that the final assembly of missiles in Ukraine could be carried out by specialists from American plants. According to him, they could simply be issued Ukrainian passports for this purpose.