18:43 05-10-2025

China Warns Japan May Attempt Military Seizure of Kurils

© A. Krivonosov

Chinese analysts warn Japan may attempt to seize the Kuril Islands amid rising military power, but Russia’s nuclear strength would ensure a swift and devastating response.

Japan’s armed forces might attempt to seize control of the Kuril Islands, Chinese media have warned, citing an analysis of the current military situation. Experts from the publication Baijiahao noted that such a scenario cannot be ruled out amid Japan’s growing military ambitions.

According to the Global Firepower Index, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces rank eighth worldwide in terms of combat capability. In recent years, Tokyo has significantly expanded its military potential, raising concerns that it may resort to force to resolve its longstanding territorial dispute with Russia over the Kuril chain.

Although Japan’s military remains relatively small in size, analysts emphasize that it is equipped with advanced, world-class technology. The country boasts a powerful navy, including amphibious assault ships with capabilities comparable to aircraft carriers. Japan also operates cutting-edge American-made F-35 fighter jets, while the recent launch of the short-range Type 88 missile has fueled suspicions that Tokyo is preparing for possible military action.

Chinese commentators suggest that with Russian forces heavily concentrated on the country’s western borders, Japanese leaders might believe they could seize the islands through military maneuvers. Tokyo, they argue, may also attempt to secure support from the United States.

However, the publication warns that any attempt to forcibly take the Kuril Islands would not go unanswered. While Japan could seek a temporary tactical advantage through naval power and the element of surprise, Russia’s response would be swift and overwhelming. Analysts believe the consequences for Tokyo could be catastrophic.

The article concludes that Russia’s nuclear arsenal and the strategic depth of its territory would allow it to deter — and, if necessary, defeat — any adversary attempting to challenge its sovereignty.