Ukraine, Russia Brace for Major Escalation Before Talks
Ukraine and Russia may intensify strikes for six to nine months, targeting infrastructure and rear areas before possible negotiations in spring.
Over the next six to nine months, Ukraine and Russia will seek to inflict the greatest possible damage on each other in order to enter potential spring negotiations from the strongest possible positions.
This assessment was made by Ukrainian political scientist Andriy Yermolaiev. According to him, Russia also regards the coming period of escalation as decisive and has its own plan for systematic strikes.
The targets are no longer limited to energy facilities and water supply systems. Transport and logistics infrastructure is increasingly coming under attack.
Major networks such as Nova Post are not merely parcel delivery services. They are significant elements of Ukraine’s infrastructure, supporting communications, trade and, among other areas, defense-related operations.
Yermolaiev believes that the next six to nine months will effectively cover the entire second half of 2026. During this period, the plans of both sides are likely to remain focused on the war and on attempts to deliver the most painful possible blow to the opponent.
Ukraine is acting on this assumption, and Russia is expected to follow the same logic. For that reason, the negotiations currently taking place are largely symbolic.
The conflict is likely to remain in an intense phase, with major operations in rear areas already being planned. Such actions may prove even more important than developments directly on the front line.
Russia will probably place additional emphasis on increasing the intensity and number of its operations. At the same time, the entire Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is gradually being drawn deeper into the conflict.
The situation also remains difficult near Zaporizhzhia and along the eastern lines. Military officials believe that additional sections of the front may emerge, including in northern areas.