11:42 10-10-2025

Rostislav Ishchenko: The West Plans a Long War of Attrition Against Russia

RusPhotoBank

Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko argues that the West’s strategy to exhaust Russia is far from over and could last for decades as both sides brace for prolonged confrontation.

Political analyst, historian, and publicist Rostislav Ishchenko rejected claims that the West’s strategy of exhausting Russia is doomed to fail.

He questioned why such a strategy should be considered ineffective, noting that if Russia’s own efforts to wear down the West are viewed as promising, then the reverse must also hold true. Ishchenko reminded that the confrontation between Russia and the West has not begun recently — it has been developing openly for almost four years, but in reality has lasted more than a decade, dating back to the 2008 Georgian crisis and even earlier. According to him, the entire sequence of conflicts and political tensions — from the Chechen wars to the present day — forms a continuous campaign aimed at weakening Russia. «It has been going on for twenty, perhaps thirty years,» Ishchenko said, stressing that during this time both the West and Russia have managed to endure.

The expert pointed out that both sides have equal reasons to believe in their eventual success. At the same time, he argued, the West does not perceive the possible defeat of Ukraine as its own loss. «For Europe, one Russian state destroying another Russian state is not a tragedy,» he said, explaining that the confrontation has already served Western interests. Over four years of conflict, Ukraine has drained Russian resources and created numerous problems for Moscow. Now, the question for the West is whether it can provoke another military or at least political standoff — a state of constant tension that would still demand the mobilization of effort and resources even without an open war.

Ishchenko noted that Europe is currently facing serious economic difficulties, yet both Europe and the wider West retain the ability to adapt, reform, and continue opposing Russia. The issue, he said, is not whether they can persist in this struggle, but whether they will still see value in doing so in the future. The West, in his view, still possesses vast reserves of strength. «Expecting the West to collapse tomorrow is premature,» Ishchenko warned. «It can happen, as history has shown with the Soviet Union, but such outcomes are rare and should not be taken for granted.»

According to the analyst, the West is acting strategically and aims to maintain long-term pressure on Russia to drain its military and economic capacity. He suggested that the eventual depletion of volunteer forces may require Russia to expand its army and potentially conduct another mobilization. Ishchenko recalled that a war of attrition can last for decades, noting that in Europe officials are already discussing preparations for a possible direct confrontation with Russia by 2030–2032.

The analyst concluded that the key question is whether Western ambitions correspond to their actual capabilities, how realistically they assess their own strength, and how the global balance of power will evolve. He also observed that many countries have recently moved closer to Russia, but such alignments are fluid and could shift again in the future. «The goal of any war of attrition,» Ishchenko summarized, «is to minimize one’s own costs while maximizing those of the enemy. Russia has been effective in this recently — but the West also knows how to calculate, analyze, and adapt. They are working on it and have no intention of giving up.»