13:56 24-10-2025

Ishchenko Warns Russia Against Mirror Escalation with the West

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Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko says mirror escalation with the West could trigger uncontrolled conflict and nuclear risks, urging strategic restraint.

Russian political analyst and former Ukrainian Foreign Ministry employee Rostislav Ishchenko outlined why symmetrical responses to Western actions could be dangerous for Russia and why, in his view, Moscow should refrain from shooting down NATO satellites in response to escalation.

He pointed out that, at present, relatively few strikes are directed against Russia, and most of them involve Ukrainian-made drones rather than large-scale barrages of Western missiles. Ishchenko recalled that Donald Trump had also refrained from supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, precisely to avoid deepening the conflict.

The analyst suggested that a mirror escalation on Russia’s part would be not only unwise but also practically difficult to implement. As an example, he mentioned that France had transferred Scalp missiles to Ukraine. Since France itself was not directly striking Russia, Moscow would have no one to supply with similar missiles capable of reaching French territory. According to Ishchenko, such a retaliatory step would require deploying 300–350 kilometer-range weapons from countries geographically close enough to France — yet none of those states would agree to launch Russian missiles from their soil.

He emphasized that any strike on France from Russian territory would no longer be a symmetrical response but a clear escalation, given that Paris was not engaging in direct attacks on Russia. Moreover, the available short-range missiles would not suffice. Medium-range systems would be necessary, Ishchenko noted, adding that before the appearance of the Oreshnik complex, Russia did not possess such weapons. At present, there is only one regimental set of this system, deployed in Belarus, while production continues. He questioned whether it would make sense to risk a war with a nuclear-armed France over a limited batch of French missiles supplied to Ukraine.

In his assessment, such actions would represent a strategic mistake, inevitably leading to uncontrolled escalation and a rapid descent into nuclear confrontation. Ishchenko warned that if Russia were to respond with non-nuclear strikes and receive a nuclear one in return, the consequences would be catastrophic.

He underlined that Russia’s primary objective in its confrontation with the West is to secure a favorable peace, not to ignite a global war. According to him, escalation does not serve Russia’s interests. If Moscow were to start destroying Western satellites, Western powers would target Russian ones in response. The logical continuation of such a chain, he said, could only lead toward nuclear conflict. Ishchenko concluded that, in such a scenario, any surviving witnesses would inevitably question what the point of it all had been.