14:19 19-08-2025

Why Lasting Peace in Ukraine Is Impossible Now – Ishchenko

Analyst Rostislav Ishchenko outlines four key reasons why lasting peace in Ukraine is impossible, citing Kyiv’s stance, Europe’s policies, and U.S. global strategy.

In an article for Military affairs, political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko argued that at the current stage a lasting peace is out of reach. What may emerge instead, he suggested, is another «Minsk format» — an arrangement that Russia would not accept.

Ishchenko explained that Western governments view negotiations merely as a pause in fighting, a window to rebuild Ukraine’s military capacity. For Russia, by contrast, talks serve as a temporary way to ease tensions and lower the stakes in the global confrontation before the West inevitably raises them again.

The analyst outlined four main reasons why a long-term settlement cannot be achieved today.

First, he pointed to Ukraine’s refusal to compromise with Russia. Kyiv, he wrote, is unwilling to concede territory, alter the status of the Russian language, reduce its armed forces, or embrace neutrality — even if this means risking the future of the country itself.

Second, Ishchenko stressed that because the Russian army did not capture Kyiv, no pro-Russian political forces can come to power in Ukraine. He noted that without a military collapse of the current government, change is impossible, since, as he put it, nationalists will not denazify themselves, militarists will not disarm, and Russophobes will not transform into Russophiles.

Third, he argued that European leaders have tied both their future and their economies to the prospect of defeating Russia. They are unwilling to bear the costs of a peace deal proposed by the United States. For this reason, Ishchenko suggested, prolonging the conflict, expanding it into a broader European confrontation, and drawing Washington deeper into it remain central goals for the EU.

Fourth, Ishchenko highlighted U.S. strategy itself. Washington, he said, has no intention of abandoning confrontation with China or its aim of toppling Iran’s ruling regime. Breaking up a unified Eurasia into rival states, in his view, is seen in the U.S. as the first step toward restoring American global dominance.