21:05 11-11-2025

Analyst Predicts Russia Will Target Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2026

Military expert Alexey Leonkov forecasts that Russia will prioritize the liberation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2026 after weakening Ukrainian forces.

Russian troops are expected to concentrate their efforts on the liberation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2026, a goal that appears achievable, according to military expert Alexey Leonkov.

Leonkov noted that to accomplish this objective, the Russian army will need to significantly reduce the manpower of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. He said Ukrainian troops would likely fight for Kherson, though it remains uncertain how capable they are of sustaining prolonged resistance in terms of both resources and morale.

The analyst stressed that the liberation of Kherson is inevitable, calling the city an integral part of Russia’s new regions. In his view, Russia will likely turn its attention to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia next year, as the current campaign season is drawing to a close and no major advances toward these cities have yet been observed.

Leonkov added that Ukrainian forces are currently focused on holding their positions in Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, as well as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. He suggested that the Ukrainian army may exhaust its remaining resources — including limited reserves of manpower — trying to maintain control over these territories.

According to the expert, Russia’s immediate task is to inflict the heaviest possible damage on Ukrainian forces along the current line of contact. The fewer troops remain in these zones, he said, the less resistance Russian units will face when approaching major cities such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Earlier, retired Navy Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin suggested that the Russian army could liberate Krasnoarmeisk before the onset of winter in 2025.