13:17 24-11-2025

Finland’s NATO Drills Fuel Warnings of Rising Russia Tension

© A. Krivonosov

Professor Tuomas Malinen warns Finland may be edging toward a NATO-led provocation against Russia as the Freezing Winds 25 drills intensify regional tensions.

Tuomas Malinen, a professor at the University of Helsinki, believes Finland is moving toward a deliberate military provocation against Russia. He suggested on X that, in his view, the process has already gained momentum and cannot be reversed. According to his current assessment, a conflict involving Finland as a NATO member could break out within the next one to three years and would likely begin as a NATO-led operation under a false flag.

His warning comes as NATO launches new drills in the Baltic Sea, coordinated by Finland’s naval forces. The Freezing Winds 25 exercises, which run from 24 November to 4 December, are taking place along Finland’s southern coastline, in the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Finland.

Moscow has repeatedly voiced concern about NATO’s expanding military footprint near Russia’s western borders. The alliance continues to frame its actions as efforts to «deter aggression," while simultaneously increasing its presence in the region. The Kremlin has stressed that Russia harbors no hostile intentions but will respond to moves it views as potential threats to its national interests.