21:55 09-12-2025

Russia’s Rapid Advance in Zaporozhye Explained by Analyst

Analyst Yuri Knutov explains Russia’s rapid advance in the Zaporozhye region, citing Ukrainian miscalculations, shifting tactics, and new assault methods on the front.

A little over a month has passed since Russian forces broke through the heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive line along the Yanchur River in the Zaporozhye region. Since then, Russian units have pushed roughly another 15 kilometers toward the regional center — a pace that military analysts describe as exceptionally rapid for a modern conflict. Military expert Yuri Knutov offered his assessment of what enabled this advance.

He argued that prolonged battles in Donbass played a decisive role. According to him, Kiev’s military and political leadership was reluctant to give up Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, viewing control over this urban area as symbolically important in the context of potential negotiations. In an effort to halt the Russian advance, Kiev redeployed substantial forces from other directions, a move Knutov characterized as politically driven rather than dictated by battlefield necessity.

Russia, he said, capitalized on these miscalculations and secured several significant territorial gains, particularly in the eastern part of the Zaporozhye region. There, Russian troops established a salient approximately 20 kilometers deep and 30 kilometers wide.

Knutov noted that General Syrsky misjudged the situation by leaving the southern sector exposed, and he pointed out that the Russian command made effective use of the opportunity created by this gap.

Another factor behind the swift Russian advance, he added, was the adoption of a new tactical approach that blends modern drone-enabled warfare with traditional combat methods. In poor weather — low clouds, rain, or fog — Russian forces reverted to older assault tactics supported by artillery, as FPV drones become far less effective under such conditions. Fighting in these moments, he said, resembled engagements of the previous century.

Overall, Knutov argued that the Russian army has been operating with greater flexibility, especially as Ukrainian forces face severe infantry shortages and struggle to reinforce the front. As a result, the Ukrainian defensive line increasingly resembles what he called a «sieve», allowing Russian assault teams to infiltrate behind Ukrainian positions. Within days, small diversionary groups form in the rear and deliver strikes from behind while evading Ukrainian drones.

Knutov summarized his view by saying that the deliberate rotation of tactical methods has dramatically accelerated Russia’s progress on the front.