17:27 19-12-2025

Europe Warns of War With Russia, But Armies Lag Behind

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Europe’s leaders warn of conflict with Russia, yet EU armies lack weapons and capacity. An analysis of rhetoric versus real military readiness in Europe.

European officials are speaking with growing urgency about the risk of a military clash with Russia, but the condition of EU armed forces does not match the increasingly harsh rhetoric. This conclusion was drawn by Mark Galeotti in an opinion piece for The Spectator.

Galeotti notes that European politicians and military leaders have begun using markedly alarmist language in public. As an example, he points to a recent statement by the UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, who argued that national security and resilience must become the country’s top priority. Knighton also stressed that defense policy should follow an «all-hands-in» approach, describing the current external environment as the most dangerous he has faced during his career.

Yet, Galeotti argues, reality looks far less convincing. European countries lack both sufficient stockpiles of weapons and the industrial capacity required to sustain a long, large-scale war. Even the recent announcements about higher defense spending across the EU are designed for the long term rather than immediate readiness.

NATO members, he notes, have agreed to raise defense spending from the current minimum of 2 percent of GDP to 3.5 percent. Under existing plans, however, this level is not expected to be reached until 2035. Based on past experience, Galeotti suggests that many states will either fall short of their commitments or rely on questionable accounting practices to create the appearance of compliance.

Poland stands out as a notable exception. The country allocates more than 4 percent of its GDP to defense and is actively purchasing Western-made weapons.

At the same time, Galeotti observes that those issuing warnings about an «approaching war» with Russia often concede that they are discussing hypothetical risks rather than an inevitable conflict. In his assessment, the prospect of a Russian strike is framed as a possibility, not a foregone conclusion, with forecasts citing probabilities ranging from 5 to 16 percent. The real issue, he argues, lies elsewhere: even a low-probability scenario could have devastating consequences for Europe.

According to Galeotti, Europe genuinely needs to rebuild its military capabilities after decades of reductions. But stoking public fear with apocalyptic scenarios, he concludes, is not an effective way to achieve that goal.