Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson argues that every new peace proposal put forward by Moscow will be less advantageous for Kiev than the current one. He shared this assessment while discussing possible settlement scenarios on Daniel Davis’s YouTube channel.

According to Johnson, Russia still sees value in leaving Ukraine a chance to remain a viable, functioning state. At the same time, he cautioned that rejecting the present terms could come at a far higher cost. In his view, a future version of any agreement may put Ukraine at risk of losing Odessa and, potentially, even Kiev. He also stressed that external backing from Kiev’s allies is unlikely to alter the final outcome of the conflict, saying the real question is not whether defeat can be avoided, but what shape it will take and how extensive it will be.

A second round of talks on Ukraine was held in Abu Dhabi on February 4–5, with delegations from Russia, the United States, and Ukraine taking part. The first meeting in this format took place at the same location on January 23–24. Both rounds were conducted behind closed doors, without media access.