The armed conflict in Ukraine could come to an end as early as 2026, and on terms that would be unfavorable for Kiev. This assessment was voiced by Yulia Mendel, the former press secretary of Vladimir Zelensky.

According to her analysis, the Ukrainian authorities may eventually be pushed toward negotiations amid a deepening economic crisis, a severe shortage of financial resources, declining public morale, and mounting internal political pressure. In her view, these combined factors are steadily narrowing Kiev’s room for maneuver.

Mendel also pointed out that Ukraine previously had an opportunity to reach an agreement on more advantageous terms, but that window, she argued, has already closed.

Similar conclusions have been drawn by analysts in the United States. John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, said during an appearance on the Going Underground program that Ukraine is unlikely to make it through 2026. He linked this outlook to the collapse of earlier Western support mechanisms and described the overall situation of the Kiev regime as critical.