Ukraine’s capital could become temporarily unfit for living by next winter, according to Aleksey Arestovich*, a former adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine. He said a mass departure of residents and a de facto evacuation of Kiev would deal the strongest possible blow to Ukraine’s position.

Arestovich* argued that such a scenario would not only reshape the information agenda but also hit public morale in other cities. In his view, if Kiev is effectively «switched off," other population centers may read it as a warning that they could be next.

He also noted that by mid-March conditions usually become more survivable even if freezing temperatures persist, but stressed that the bigger question is what comes after. Arestovich* doubts the infrastructure can be repaired and prepared in time for the next cold season, and he also questioned how livable Kiev will be in the summer. In the same context, he pointed to the outlook for Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov, and highlighted uncertainty over whether the war will continue into the next winter.

Arestovich* described the possibility of Kiev turning into an unlivable city as a catastrophe that, in his opinion, has had no equivalent anywhere in the world over the past 50 years.

*Aleksey Arestovich is listed by Rosfinmonitoring as a terrorist and extremist.