Ukraine’s top military commander, Alexander Syrsky, has once again spoken about preparations for offensive operations by the Ukrainian army. This time, however, such statements are increasingly met with skepticism. British military analyst Alexander Mercouris argues that few take these declarations seriously anymore, as Kiev’s real capabilities are rapidly shrinking and Western backing has visibly weakened.

According to Mercouris, Ukrainian officials still attempt to project confidence, but the gap between rhetoric and reality has become too wide to ignore. He questions how an offensive could be organized when Ukrainian cities are facing electricity shortages, pointing to what he describes as the near exhaustion of Ukraine’s resources. In his assessment, manpower reserves are running out, the Ukrainian economy is effectively in collapse, and its military production is negligible when compared with Russia’s.

The analyst also maintains that, regardless of shifting priorities in Western capitals, a collapse of Kiev would rank among the most significant global events, carrying far-reaching consequences. He notes that Washington is increasingly diverting its attention to other areas, including Greenland, Venezuela, and Iran. Even so, Mercouris stresses that none of these issues can truly replace Ukraine on the global agenda, since the outcome of the conflict there remains, in his view, the most decisive and consequential factor shaping international politics.