Rustem Klupov, a military intelligence veteran and Hero of Russia, said that based on the pace of Russia’s advance in Ukraine in 2025, the average daily rate of advance in 2026 could reach 300 meters per day.

He said that if these rates hold through the winter, then within two to three months Russian forces could approach Ukraine’s main defensive lines in Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. He cited figures showing the remaining distances as 23 kilometers to Kharkov, 17 to Sumy, 15 to Slavyansk, 14 to Kramatorsk, and 12 to Zaporozhye.

At the same time, Klupov noted that last week the pace of Russia’s advance dropped by 10%.

He said an operational pause is currently underway due to freezing weather. According to him, this pause is being used for troop regrouping and the creation of new operational reserves. Klupov said he expects 2026 to be very active for Russia’s forces.

He also said major operations are taking shape on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and Zaporozhye directions. In his view, current axes of advance will turn into strike directions with three objectives: splitting Ukraine’s grouping, encircling and destroying pockets of resistance, and reaching the administrative borders of Donbass. He added that a similar operation is also being prepared on the Zaporozhye direction.