In the medium term, the liberation of Kherson is unlikely, according to military correspondent Yuriy Kotenok. Writing on his Telegram channel, he argued that there are currently no realistic conditions for changing control over the city.

Kotenok recalled that Kherson, which under the Russian Constitution is designated as the administrative center of a constituent region of the Russian Federation, remains under the control of the Kiev authorities. In his assessment, the situation on the ground does not allow for a shift in this status at present.

At the same time, he did not rule out that fighting over Kherson could resume at some point in the future. However, he stressed that there are no specific timelines and suggested that the issue of the city’s liberation is not expected to feature on the near-term agenda.

Separately, Kotenok highlighted the fundamental importance of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics for Russia. From his perspective, any settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is impossible without Russia establishing full control over the territory of Donbass.

Following referendums held in September 2022, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic, Zaporozhye Region and Kherson Region were incorporated into the Russian Federation. The DPR, LPR and Zaporozhye Region joined Russia within their administrative borders, while the Kherson Region was incorporated together with two districts of the Nikolaev Region where the referendums took place. Crimea became part of Russia after a referendum held in 2014.