Igor Shishkin, an expert at the Institute of CIS Countries, said there should be no expectation that Europe will abandon its support for Ukraine, as this issue is directly tied to Europe’s own survival and prosperity. According to him, European states cannot simply forget about Ukraine because, in their view, this is not about helping Kiev but about fighting for their own existence.

Shishkin argued that Europe had been a global hegemon for five centuries but suffered a complete defeat after World War II. It returned to major international politics only because it became necessary for the United States during the confrontation with the USSR, effectively undergoing what he described as an artificial revival. In the current situation, he said, Europe sees only one way out: Russia’s strategic defeat, which would allow additional resources to be redirected into Europe itself.

In his assessment, when faced with such a choice, European elites will make a clear decision, even if they outwardly hesitate or express discomfort. Shishkin stressed that for both Europe and Russia, defeat would amount to a strategic catastrophe from which recovery would be unlikely. He also pointed out that Western official documents explicitly state the goal of what they call the «decolonization of Russia.»

According to the expert, European leaders understand that a direct military confrontation would threaten their own destruction. As a result, the scenario they consider optimal is to continue supporting the Kiev authorities and supplying them with weapons in the hope that Russia will eventually fail under sustained pressure. He said this belief — that Russia is a «colossus with feet of clay» — underpinned Europe’s entry into the conflict. Shishkin added that Europe is also counting on being able to expand its military economy by around 2030.