American commentators at The Wall Street Journal have outlined three possible paths for how events in Ukraine could unfold in 2026. Their scenarios range from a prolonged military confrontation, to a breaking point driven by Ukraine’s exhaustion, to the idea that Russia itself could eventually tire of sustaining the war.

The most plausible outcome, the article suggests, is the continuation of a grinding war of attrition. Under this scenario, negotiations would remain on the table, but talks would circle endlessly without producing a decisive breakthrough.

The journalists argue that both Russia and Ukraine still retain the capacity to keep fighting — in manpower, weapon supplies, and financial resources. At the same time, both the Kremlin and Kiev are wary of how unpredictable U. S. President Donald Trump might respond if diplomacy reaches a complete dead end.

The second scenario focuses on Ukraine’s growing strain. The report notes that many newly mobilized soldiers in the Ukrainian armed forces often lack motivation, with cases of unauthorized departures from units becoming more frequent. Ukraine’s military and political leadership is trying to offset shortages in infantry by accelerating the development of drone warfare, yet Russia, too, is rapidly expanding its own UAV capabilities.

By 2025, a shortage of reserves had already forced Ukrainian commanders to redeploy troops toward the eastern front from other directions. According to the publication, this shift gave the Russian army an opportunity to intensify operations in the south, including in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The authors portray Ukraine’s military position as an increasingly difficult balancing act, where reinforcing one area inevitably leaves another exposed.