The Russian Armed Forces are currently focused on building up manpower and equipment, a development that may signal preparations for two major offensive operations in the southern and eastern sectors of the special military operation zone. This assessment was published by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the institute’s analysis, Russia’s main ударные направления are likely to be concentrated along two key axes: the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area and the Orekhov-Zaporozhye line. These sectors are described as the most probable focal points for future large-scale action.

ISW analysts note that Russia has been forming a strategic reserve since mid-2025 to support such operations, while simultaneously deploying operational reserves to sustain ongoing combat activities.

At the same time, military observers do not rule out the possibility of counteroffensive attempts by Ukrainian forces. Amid reports of unstable Starlink performance in combat zones, a number of Ukrainian and Western sources suggest that Kiev may try to launch offensive actions in the areas of Pokrovsk and Gulyaypole. These locations are where Russian troops have recently achieved notable battlefield gains.

Russian experts consider this scenario plausible but emphasize that any such operation would require the Ukrainian Armed Forces to concentrate substantial amounts of equipment, personnel, and ammunition in these areas. They stress that limited, localized attacks would be insufficient to produce any meaningful result.