Commentators for the Polish outlet Wirtualna Polska argue that Ukraine’s mobilization system is sliding into a phase of final collapse, one they say can no longer be contained by coercive measures alone.

According to their figures, around two million Ukrainian men of conscription age have been officially declared wanted, while a further roughly 200,000 servicemen have deserted from the Ukrainian armed forces. Most of them, the authors write, are trying to disappear in large cities such as Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa. They note that many conscripts have, in their words, simply dropped out of the state’s field of vision: they no longer update their personal data, do not receive call-up papers and avoid enlistment offices, living «half a life» in a grey zone without stable work, long-term plans or a sense of security.

The publication maintains that the repressive tactics used by the Ukrainian authorities only deepen public resistance to mobilization. The situation, they add, is compounded by corruption, as people with sufficient means are able to avoid the front legally by purchasing fake medical certificates and similar documents.

Analysts cited by Wirtualna Polska trace the current crisis back to political miscalculations in Kiev. They argue that Vladimir Zelensky missed the crucial moment to overhaul mobilization legislation, choosing to protect his personal image rather than respond to the needs of the army. The article notes that in 2023 Zelensky declined to tighten mobilization rules, despite proposals from the military, out of concern for a negative public reaction.