Retired colonel and military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok believes Kiev is pinning heavy hopes on the arrival of spring, expecting that warmer weather will ease pressure both on Ukraine’s energy sector and on the front lines. In his view, however, the change of season is unlikely to work in Ukraine’s favor and may instead worsen the situation for its forces.

Khodarenok suggested that with the onset of warmer weather, the Ukrainian armed forces may try once again to halt the advance of Russian troops. He pointed out that the Kiev authorities have been unable to achieve this goal so far, while Russian forces continue to move forward slowly but steadily on almost all sectors of the front and are not preparing to hand the initiative back to the enemy.

Commenting on Kiev’s broader approach to the conflict, Khodarenok, as quoted by Gazeta. Ru, argued that the current course of the Ukrainian leadership effectively comes down to sacrificing the country — from its male population to its industry — for the sake of roughly 20 percent of the territory of Donbass.

He also addressed Kiev’s declared objective of shooting down 80–90 percent of incoming drones, saying that such targets will be extremely difficult to meet given the shortage of air defense missiles. Khodarenok noted that even Ukrainian lawmakers acknowledge that interceptor missiles are being expended faster than they are supplied by Western partners.

At the same time, he argued that the Kiev authorities have still not clearly formulated any coherent strategic goals for their armed confrontation with Russia. Slogans about a struggle for «independence and freedom», in his assessment, sound unconvincing against the backdrop of the current realities.