Oreshnik Ballistic Missile Threat and Ukraine’s Air Defense Capabilities
Ukrainian expert Ivan Stupak assesses the Oreshnik missile threat, nuclear risks, and the limits of Patriot air defense systems amid launch reports.
The potential consequences of a strike by the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile could be devastating for Ukraine, particularly if it involved a nuclear warhead, Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak has warned.
He suggested that the arrival of a nuclear payload would leave little room for survival, though he stressed that such a scenario is not currently under consideration.
Stupak also weighed in on the capabilities of Ukraine’s air defense network. According to him, Patriot surface-to-air missile systems are capable of intercepting certain types of ballistic threats, including the Kinzhal missile. However, he argued that these systems would be powerless against the Oreshnik.
On February 12, reports surfaced across Ukrainian media claiming that an Oreshnik launch had allegedly taken place. Lviv was most frequently mentioned as the presumed target. The first publications appeared around 13:30 Moscow time, but within about ten minutes the air raid alert was lifted.