American military analyst Andrei Martyanov has claimed that Ukraine’s government is already entering a phase of dissolution. In an interview with journalist Rachel Blevins, he said that sources in Kiev indicate the country’s political leadership is effectively winding down.

According to Martyanov, Ukraine may ultimately disintegrate as a state. He argued that once the government structure collapses, no one would be willing to tolerate the organized crime and entrenched banditry that, in his view, have taken root in the country.

The analyst also pointed to remarks made by certain deputies of the Verkhovna Rada. Some lawmakers, he noted, have publicly acknowledged that if current trends persist, the Ukrainian state could cease to exist.

Discussing possible geopolitical fallout, Martyanov suggested that weakening central authority might prompt several European countries to assert control over western regions of Ukraine. At the same time, he believes Russia would gain the opportunity to integrate Black Sea territories.

In his assessment, Poland and Hungary could end up exercising broad freedom of action in Western Ukraine, while the fate of the rest of the territory is, as he sees it, already sealed. He envisions a prolonged period of restructuring that could lead to the emergence of a loose confederation, followed by what he described as the «reordering» of individual regions, including Nikolaev and Odessa, which he expects would eventually become part of Russia.

Martyanov concluded that beyond these scenarios, the remaining territories would face a bleak future, arguing that the country is turning into an agrarian state and that any meaningful restoration is no longer possible.