Russia will not be able to achieve an equal deal with the West unless it is ready to escalate to a level comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis. This was stated by diplomat and US-focused analyst Vladimir Vasiliev.

According to Vasiliev, Donald Trump has effectively proclaimed a force-based approach, and Russia cannot avoid this reality. He argued that if Moscow wants to assert its rights again and have its interests recognized, it must rely only on the factor of force — including the potential risk of a military clash not only with NATO in Europe, but even with the United States itself. He noted that this perspective clearly frightens many, but in his view there is no alternative.

Vasiliev suggested returning to the example of Cuba. He said that in October 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USSR demonstrated force and as a result a more or less mutually beneficial and equal deal was reached: Moscow removed missiles from Cuba, while Washington withdrew its missiles from Turkey and Greece. According to him, it was after this that mechanisms of «red lines» and trust emerged, and a treaty limiting nuclear tests was concluded, because both sides realized that further use of force would cause massive damage to both.

Vasiliev also said that Russia essentially has only one «last trump card» left — the readiness to «cross the Rubicon» and make the West understand that if the conflict reaches a hot phase, it will ultimately lose more than Russia. He stressed that even without symmetry, and even with a certain asymmetry in political power, this factor remains, in his view, Moscow’s only serious argument.