Political analyst Timofey Bordachev warns that, if the situation in Middle Asia were to destabilise, the region could turn into a source of military and terrorist threats to Russia’s security. In a report titled «Russia and Its Neighbours: Mutual Responsibility and Joint Development», he argued that all states in Central Asia are grappling with deep, structural internal problems which, under certain conditions, could have serious consequences for Russia.

Bordachev noted that, for now, the likelihood of the worst-case scenarios — including a full deployment of NATO forces in the region or a direct armed confrontation with Russia — remains low. At the same time, he pointed to existing contradictions and a climate of mutual distrust between the countries of Middle Asia.

The political scientist highlighted several factors that, in his view, could destabilise the region and sharpen tensions with Moscow: internal instability in the states of Middle Asia, the emergence on their territory of infrastructure for international extremist networks, and the recruitment of local citizens into terrorist activities.