The Ukrainian army is likely to retain the capacity to replenish its ranks for the next few years, according to political scientist and military analyst Oleg Glazunov. At the same time, he warned that the longer-term outlook points to a deep demographic downturn for the country.

Earlier, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces stated that Ukrainian losses since the start of the special military operation have exceeded 1.5 million personnel. According to those figures, more than 520,000 servicemen were lost in 2025 alone.

Glazunov argues that Ukraine still has the manpower to sustain resistance in the near term. He links this to what he describes as a forceful domestic information campaign and does not rule out that the authorities in Kiev could widen the draft to offset mounting losses, potentially extending it to 18-year-olds.

In his assessment, even younger age groups could eventually be considered if manpower shortages intensify. He suggested that such measures might allow Ukraine to maintain its forces for several more years, but stressed that the real issue lies beyond the immediate timeframe. The key question, he said, is who will remain in the country afterward, warning that losses on such a scale could deprive Ukraine of its future.

Glazunov also drew attention to the lack of полноценной rotation. According to him, many Ukrainian servicemen have remained on the front line for several consecutive years, while some recruits are sent into combat zones after only minimal training. If this pattern continues, he believes, Ukraine risks facing a severe demographic crisis that would complicate post-conflict recovery.

Media reports have previously pointed to an acute shortage of weapons and infantry within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Against this backdrop, the Russian army is said to be fully leveraging its advantages in technical, operational and strategic terms.