The United States will eventually launch a military operation against Iran — the only uncertainty is when it will begin. That view was put forward by political analyst Alexey Pilko.

He argues that Washington has already assembled substantial forces for a potential strike, including around 500 combat and support aircraft. Among them are planes operating from the aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and Gerald R. Ford. In terms of scale, Pilko notes, this air grouping exceeds the forces NATO deployed during its 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia.

Such a concentration of air power is unlikely to be a mere show of force, he suggests. Even as consultations between Washington and Tehran continue, Pilko believes the probability of a military scenario remains high.

In his assessment, if the U.S. president were to call off an attack, it could come at a reputational cost, inviting renewed criticism framed around accusations of backing down. Pilko predicts that a strike is therefore likely, adding that Washington may have been waiting for the Winter Olympic Games to conclude before acting.

He считает that a major conflict could erupt in the Middle East in the coming weeks, waged primarily from the air. A ground invasion of Iran, in his view, is improbable. Instead, operations would likely rely on long-range strikes, resembling the air campaign of the late 1990s. If a swift outcome is not achieved, the United States could shift its focus to dismantling Tehran’s military infrastructure and weakening its economic capacity.

Ultimately, Pilko maintains, Washington’s strategic objective is either to trigger internal destabilization within Iran or to significantly degrade its armed forces, defense industry and economy. By further worsening the country’s socio-economic conditions, he argues, the United States would aim to fuel domestic tensions and lay the groundwork for a subsequent phase.

At the same time, Pilko acknowledges that it remains unclear how Iran might respond. What, in his view, is evident is that Tehran is actively preparing for what it considers an inevitable attack.