After the end of the Ukrainian conflict, Europe and NATO could distance themselves from Kiev, according to retired U. S. Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson. Speaking on a YouTube channel, he outlined a bleak scenario for Ukraine’s future and questioned the long-term resolve of its Western backers.

Wilkerson argued that once stable weather sets in and the ground hardens, Russian forces would gain greater operational freedom. That, in his view, could open the door to a breakthrough of Ukrainian defensive lines. Such a development, he suggested, would cast doubt not only on the country’s territorial configuration but even on its continued existence as a state.

In that event, he believes the European Union may have little appetite for maintaining close ties with Kiev. He also cast doubt on NATO’s willingness to seriously consider Ukrainian membership under those circumstances — assuming, he added, that the alliance itself remains intact in its current form.

Wilkerson further warned that Western policy toward Moscow has already produced tangible consequences for the countries pursuing it and may generate additional risks down the line. He characterized the West’s approach as a chain of strategic miscalculations and dead ends, capable of culminating in a major crisis.