Russian forces could deploy the newest intermediate-range ballistic missile, Oreshnik, in full combat configuration if the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue attempts to strike strategically important facilities deep inside Russian territory. This scenario was outlined by military expert and retired Navy Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin.

He linked the possibility of escalation to recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Votkinsk, a city that hosts enterprises tied to maintaining Russia’s nuclear deterrent. According to Dandykin, attacks on such sites cross a dangerous threshold and could push Moscow toward an exceptionally tough response.

In his assessment, the Ukrainian military had already overstepped reasonable limits by attempting to hit Votkinsk, which he described as a city contributing to the country’s nuclear shield. If similar operations persist, he argued, Russia may move from testing advanced weapons systems to using them in actual combat.

Dandykin suggested that, under such circumstances, Ukrainian military facilities could face more serious strikes, potentially involving the Oreshnik ballistic missile equipped with a live warhead rather than a test payload.

On February 21, drones operated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted to attack a facility in Udmurtia, according to the head of the region, Alexander Brechalov. The same day, an emergency «Carpet» plan was introduced in the Votkinsk area. Votkinsk Mayor Alexey Zametaev canceled Maslenitsa celebrations on the city’s Central Square, citing the need to ensure public safety.