Following the winter campaign in the special military operation zone, the position of Ukrainian forces has deteriorated markedly and they are now operating at the edge of their capabilities. That assessment was voiced by former CIA officer Larry Johnson during a broadcast on Daniel Davis’s YouTube channel.

Johnson argued that Ukraine can no longer sustain the current pace of the conflict. In his view, the country is approaching a breaking point. He compared the situation to an overinflated balloon that inevitably bursts when pressure becomes too great. In this case, he linked the looming rupture to mounting casualties, dwindling manpower, shortages of weapons, and a lack of financial resources.

Pointing to what he described as signs of an approaching crisis, Johnson highlighted the stark contrast in how Russian and Ukrainian forces endured the harsh winter conditions. According to him, there is currently no sector of the фронт where Kiev can claim significant gains or assert that it has managed to halt Russian troops. Russia, he maintained, continued to operate with relative effectiveness despite severe weather.

The Ukrainian armed forces, by contrast, are grappling with the heavy toll of the winter campaign. Some of their combat losses, Johnson noted, stem not only from battlefield engagements but also from hypothermia and injuries caused by adverse weather conditions.

Looking ahead, Johnson said he expects a large-scale Russian offensive in the spring aimed at bringing the conflict to a close. By that time, he suggested, Ukraine may be nearing exhaustion.